BMW takes the lead in BEV sales for the first time
Chinese catch up, Tesla and VW slump
New car registrations in Europe recorded positive results in the first half of 2024, but there are signs of a slowdown in the previous growth drivers. According to data from JATO Dynamics, new car registrations in 28 European countries rose by just 4.4% year-on-year between January and June 2024. The volume increased from 6,559,213 units in the first half of 2023 to 6,847,842 units in the first half of 2024.
Felipe Munoz, Global Analyst at JATO Dynamics, explained: "Growth in Europe is moderating and is still far below pre-pandemic levels. This is due to a more complex environment, including emissions regulations, rising vehicle prices and barriers to electric vehicle adoption. Since the semiconductor shortage, electric vehicles have been the main driver of growth. It is therefore crucial that the industry does everything it can over the next six months to address the uncertainty surrounding the EV market, including the impact of EU tariffs on imported electric cars from China."
Chinese on the rise
In the first half of 2024, new registrations of electric cars from Chinese brands totalled 70,000 units, an increase of 26% compared to the first half of 2023. Their market share of BEVs also increased from 5.97% to 7.37% in the same period. Among all automotive groups, this was the third largest increase in market share, surpassed only by Volvo-Polestar and BMW Group.
Munoz added: "European Union measures to impose tariffs on BEV imports from China affect models that accounted for 17% of BEV registrations in Europe in the first half of 2024, excluding potential units imported by Tesla."
The Volvo EX30, manufactured in China, was the third most registered electric car in Europe in the first half of 2024. The fourth most popular model was the MG4, also manufactured in China. Munoz emphasised: "It is clear that China has contributed significantly to the growth of the market. Without these competitive prices from China, consumers will face higher prices, which could lead to a drop in demand in the coming months."
In the first half of 2024, the European BEV market was led by Volkswagen Group with 178,000 units. However, its volume was 14% lower than in the first half of 2023, due to a 24% decline at the Volkswagen brand and a 55% decline at Porsche. While the Volkswagen ID.3 and ID.4 are being updated, both models are relatively old, making it difficult for the German OEM to attract new potential customers.
Tesla is slowing down
After years of continuous growth, Tesla is now showing signs of slowing down. Registrations in Europe fell from 185,200 units in the first half of 2023 to 161,600 units this year to June.
Munoz added: "This is very similar to what we've seen in the US and there are three reasons for this. Firstly, we know that no brand can sustain its growth with a limited product range that is starting to age. Secondly, the increasing competition from other brands such as BMW will undoubtedly impact registrations and finally, Tesla's strategy of price cuts will no longer have the same effect in 2023 as more and more Chinese OEMs offer competitively priced vehicles."
More analysis:
BMW now ahead of VW
In contrast, the BMW Group and Chinese OEMs gained significant ground in the first half of 2024. The BMW Group secured almost 10% market share in the BEV market, up from 7.5% in the first half of 2023. This is due to strong results from its BMW iX1, i4, the launch of the i5, iX2 and the Mini Countryman. BMW as a brand registered more electric cars than the Volkswagen brand in the first half of 2024.
Chinese OEMs also achieved remarkable results in the first half of the year. Geely Group, owner of Volvo, Polestar and Lotus, increased its BEV registrations by 52% compared to the first half of 2023, outperforming Hyundai-Kia, Mercedes and Renault Group10. BYD registered 17,000 electric cars, 14,000 more than in the first half of 2023. BYD outperformed Nissan, Smart, Toyota, Polestar, Citroen, Dacia, Ford, Mini, Porsche and Mazda and is now the 16th best-selling BEV brand in Europe.
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