Toyota explains its multi-path strategy - not just electric cars

All roads lead to Rome. That's a common saying. For almost all car manufacturers, Rome is currently the goal of complete CO2 neutrality. Many companies are focussing on one hundred percent electromobility. Not so for Toyota.

And this is despite the fact that the signs are not really favourable, as the latest news about Toyota shows. However, of the total of 11,233,039 cars sold by the Toyota Group in 2023, only a few have dispensed with the combustion engine. Deliveries of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) totalled 104,018 units.

Electric cars not the only solution

In reality, electric cars only accounted for 0.926 per cent of total deliveries in a record-breaking year for Toyota and Co. While some electric cars are planned for the "Beyond Zero" (bZ) range, the company believes that battery-powered vehicles will always remain a minority. Even when Toyota has diversified its electric car range, it is estimated that battery-powered models will only account for 30 per cent of sales. In an interview for Toyota Times magazine, CEO Akio Toyoda said:

"No matter how much progress is made with BEVs, I think they will have a 30 per cent market share. The remaining 70 per cent will be HEVs, FCEVs or hydrogen engines. I have no doubt that vehicles with combustion engines will survive."

Pure stubbornness or backward-looking behaviour from the boss of bosses? Not at all. This has to do with the 11.2 million cars mentioned at the beginning. Toyota sells its vehicles in practically every country in the world. Their needs cannot be reconciled. Large cars in the USA, small cars in Japan, pick-ups with simple technology in emerging markets. In other words: electric mobility is happening in the bush, jungle and desert.

And so Akio says clearly: "Many car manufacturers are aiming to switch to battery-powered electric vehicles by around 2030-40. However, the reality is that we cannot achieve zero emissions by 2050 simply by switching all new car sales to electric vehicles."

Multi-pronged approach

Toyota is therefore pursuing a multi-pronged approach to climate neutrality on a global level. This includes offering different drive systems that are tailored to the respective customer needs, market conditions and local infrastructure in the various regions of the world. The portfolio includes electric hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery and fuel cell systems, hydrogen combustion engines and e-fuels.

Toyota Multi-Path-Strategie

Toyota

The development of all new products follows the corporate goal of offering "mobility for all" and achieving complete CO2 neutrality in Europe by 2040 and worldwide by 2050. "For us, mobility is first and foremost about freedom," says Simon Humphries, Chief Branding Officer and Head of Design at Toyota Motor Corporation. "With freedom comes opportunity. At Toyota, we believe that everyone should have access to the opportunities that mobility offers, no matter where in the world, no matter the situation, and without leaving anyone behind."

Toyota's multi-technology approach, or "Multi-Path" (all roads to Rome...), fits in with this corporate vision and is intended to help develop low-emission and zero-emission mobility solutions for the regional needs of customers so that no one is left behind on the road to CO2 neutrality.

More new electric models for Europe

At the end of 2023, Toyota unveiled several concept vehicles that will herald the next generation of battery-electric models. Technologies such as the Gigacasting process and the new Arene vehicle operating system are intended to offer new design freedom and a better overall user experience.

Gallery: Toyota Kenshiki Forum 2023, all the news

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The battery-electric models presented by Toyota and Lexus included the Lexus LF-ZC, the Toyota FT-Se, the FT-3e, the Toyota Sport Crossover Concept and the Toyota Compact SUV Concept (our cover picture).

Last year, Toyota Motor Europe (TME) also announced its intention to become completely climate-neutral in Europe by 2040. In the first and second steps, this concerns the European plants and production facilities, which are to be operated in a CO2-neutral manner by 2030. By 2035, Toyota is aiming for a complete CO2 reduction in new vehicles and complete CO2 neutrality for the entire value chain and logistics by 2040.

"We will continue to focus on a wide range of technologies to reduce CO2 emissions while steadily increasing the number of zero-emission vehicles we offer to our customers," explained Yoshihiro Nakata, President and CEO of Toyota Motor Europe. It is high time, as there is currently only one purely electric car in the programme, the bZ4X. The hydrogen-powered Mirai is an absolute niche product.

Toyota Multi-Path-Strategie

Toyota

By 2026, Toyota will have expanded its range of zero-emission vehicles to around 15 models, including both passenger cars and light commercial vehicles. The share of battery electric vehicles is also expected to exceed 20 per cent by 2026, which corresponds to more than 250,000 units sold.

Solid-state batteries from 2027/28

The company is also working on a series of new batteries. The first is a performance battery with a conventional structure, which should offer almost twice the range of the battery from the current bZ4X - with a simultaneous cost reduction of 20 per cent.

This is followed by a battery that combines good quality with favourable prices and will contribute to the spread of electric vehicles. It has a new shape and a bipolar structure and uses cheaper lithium iron phosphate (LFP) as its main material. Compared to the bZ4X, Toyota is aiming for a range increase of 20 per cent and a cost reduction of 40 per cent.

The third battery type to be introduced is a high-performance battery with bipolar technologies and a cathode with a high nickel content. Toyota expects even lower costs and an even greater range compared to the performance battery.

Regarding the prospects for Toyota's first solid-state batteries, Andrea Carlucci, Vice President of Toyota Motor Europe, said: "We have achieved a technological breakthrough in the durability of solid-state batteries, which has been a challenge for many years. We are currently developing a process for series production and are aiming for market launch by 2027-2028, with a production capacity of tens of thousands of vehicles."

A charging time of 10 to 80 per cent of just 10 minutes is planned from the outset.

Where is hydrogen going?

Hydrogen and its growing infrastructure are also making an important contribution to the realisation of Toyota's planned goals. In the passenger car segment, the company already offers the Mirai fuel cell saloon and recently presented the Crown with fuel cell. But: "We tried it with the Mirai, but were not successful," Toyota chief engineer Hiroki Nakajima told Autocar. In future, the Group intends to focus more on commercial vehicles when it comes to hydrogen.

Gallery: Toyota Hilux prototype with fuel cell drive

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In the commercial sector, Toyota is also integrating its fuel cell technology into heavy trucks, buses, boats and pick-ups, such as the prototype of the Toyota Hilux with fuel cell drive.

Building on its extensive experience, Toyota is already developing the next generation of hydrogen-based fuel cell systems, which are expected to be launched in 2026.

Electric cars with manual transmission

Fortunately, Akio Toyoda is a real "Car Guy" and said in January 2023: "There is a carbon-neutral way for us as car lovers! We don't want to leave any car lovers behind!" A rather crazy idea at first glance fits in with this:

Toyota is expected to bring a simulated manual gearbox as an option in its electric vehicles from 2026. The Japanese car manufacturer doesn't just want to equip its electric cars with six or seven gears, like most manual gearboxes today.

Gallery: Lexus UX 300e Toyota EV Manual Gearbox

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A patent application from Toyota on the EV manual gearbox claims that there is technically no limit to the number of "gears" such a unit can have. Images published with the technical document show up to 14 gears. How does this actually work? The car manufacturer explains that too.

The patent goes into great detail about how such a system works. In short, the driver can select exactly the number of gears they want. "The number of virtual gear steps can be six steps or more or less than six steps," the document states. "The driver can select the desired pattern according to their preferences."

In reality, of course, this is not a real gearstick, but a software simulation. However, an additional pedal (whose resistance is presumably generated by an electric motor), a "rev counter" and a gear lever are installed. A gear is engaged as in a normal manual gearbox, but the lever can return to neutral after being operated.

Kiichiro Toyoda, founder of vehicle construction at Toyota and Akio's grandfather, once firmly believed in the value of research in itself, even if this rarely translated directly into production improvements or new products. For the future, one would like to add: Flexibility is all well and good. But we must not get lost in the maze.

The plans of the competition:

Audi A6 e-tron in a competitive comparison with BMW and Mercedes

VW postpones Trinity to 2032, electric Golf takes priority

Volvo also rethinks electric car strategy - more time is needed

De Meo: European cars are too big, upmarket and expensive