Tesla wants to produce 500,000 more electric cars: here's how

Two new economical models based on Model 3 and Y, increased volumes in Texas and new Model Y will bring 20-30% growth in 2025

Photo by: InsideEVs

By: Francesco Barontini

Nov 4, 2024 at 3:34am ET

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Elon Musk said this during the presentation of the third quarter results 2024: Tesla will grow by 20-30% in 2025. Now we find out how it will achieve this, which with a quick calculation should lead to 500,000 more electric cars being produced.

In reality, after years in which Tesla grew even at rates of 50%, the company will not close with numbers that different from 2023 by 2024. But Elon Musk has said that by 2030 Tesla will have produced 20 million cars, so it has to start growing again somehow. It is precisely this need that seems to have prompted the group to take stock and give more precise information on the intermediate steps to be taken between now and the end of the decade.

Target: 2.4 million deliveries

Let's do the maths: Tesla plans to deliver 515,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2024. That means it will theoretically end the year at 1,850,000 cars. So, in 2025, it should reach volumes around 2.2-2.4 million cars. Can it really achieve this? Let's see how production is divided between the various Gigafactories at the moment.

Factory	Models produced	Annual volumes
Fremont	Model S/X	100,000
	Model 3/Y	550,000
Shanghai	Model 3/Y	950,000
Berlin	Model 3/Y	375,000
Austin	Model Y Cybertruck	250,000 125,000

Tesla Cybertruck production will reach full capacity in 2025

All the innovations of 2025

The secret is the low-cost models that will arrive in 2025. What are they? Elon Musk has said that the Model 2, i.e. the famous €25,000 (£21,000) car, will not arrive, at least not anytime soon. However, he has also explained that two new models will arrive next year that will use an evolved version of the current platform (modified precisely to keep costs down and built following some of the principles of the evolved one on which the Cybercab will be built).

But let us not delude ourselves. It is in fact likely that these two models are actually new entry-level versions of the Model 3 and Model Y, which will nonetheless arouse a certain amount of interest, that's for sure. The Cybertruck, whose production rates are constantly increasing, and the revamped Model Y, which will give new life to the American brand's best seller, will also contribute to increasing volumes.

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Tesla Model Y Juniper: render by SugarDesign

Photos by: Car News China

The Texas Gigafactory expansion

To make more cars you need bigger factories. With this in mind, while waiting to find out where and when new factories will be built, starting with the Mexican one that seems frozen, Tesla has applied for permits to double the size of the Gigafactory in Austin, where it is based.

The factory, already one of the largest in the world, should house the lines of the low-cost vehicles mentioned above, which will run on different lines from those of the Model 3 and Model Y we already know. The expansion of the Texas site will also be useful to host the production of the Cybercab, which should be built in Austin as well as Shanghai.