Are Estate models back in fashion? Not exactly

All is not lost for estate cars. The latest global sales figures for 2023 indicate that demand has increased, despite the continuing rise in SUV volumes and lack of consumer interest in China and the USA. Are we heading for a new trend for these cars? What lies behind such growth?

Let's start with the good news. Worldwide sales of estate cars increased by 12% between 2022 and 2023, from 1.42 to 1.59 million units. This is certainly a positive result, especially when compared with the performance of hatchbacks, which grew by just 1%. The result is even more remarkable when you consider that this type of car is mainly sold in Europe.

In fact, 69% of estate or station wagon sales last year took place in Europe, where volumes rose by 15%. Still seen as useful, for example in Italy, estates still play an important role in countries such as the Czech Republic, where they have the highest market share of car sales, at almost 20%. They are followed by Germany, Hungary, Sweden, Slovakia, Finland, Austria, Poland, Serbia and Estonia.

The other side of the coin

Estate cars, on the other hand, are in a bit of a bind. Although sales are up on 2022, total volume is down 2% on 2021 and 13% on 2020, when global markets were hit by the pandemic. Last year's recovery was mainly due to higher-than-expected sales of Volkswagen Group estate cars in Europe, strong sales from the Renault Group, supported by the Dacia Jogger, and, to a lesser extent, the strong position of the Subaru Outback in the US and the arrival of Chinese cars such as the NIO ET5 T.

However, the totals simply don't add up. Demand is so concentrated in one region and so weak that we are likely to see many brands drop estate cars from their ranges.

Estate models global sales 2023 - graphic

China, the world's largest car market, does not want estate cars with just 95,600 units sold in 2023 (or 0.4% of the total), it has been overtaken by Japan, the United States and Germany. Attempts like that of the SAIC-GM-Wuling joint venture with its Baojun brand and the RC-5 W model, later called Valli, have failed. Last year, only 14 models were available, led by the electric Buick Velite 6, followed by the new NIO.

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In the United States, the situation is no better. Although this is the biggest market for the Subaru Outback, the best-selling estate in the world, the other models available barely attract any attention. Over 93% of estate car sales in the United States are accounted for by the Subaru, which is also positioned as a crossover.

The top ten markets in 2023

Top ten markets by market share in 2023

Sales of estate cars by brand in 2023

SUV instead of estate

The final reason for the gloomy future of estate cars is, not surprisingly, the popularity of SUVs. Estate cars are the closest thing to SUVs in terms of design.

This is a key aspect that doesn't work in the estate car's favour. It can offer the same versatility as an SUV, but can't match it in terms of off-road capability and ease of access in and out of the vehicle.

Read also:

These are the world's best-selling cars: The definitive rankings for 2023

Italy and France are the automotive markets in the EU that produce the least at home

Who are the biggest electric car manufacturers in the world?

Ferrari and Porsche are the two most profitable car manufacturers

The author of the article, Felipe Munoz, is an automotive industry specialist at JATO Dynamics.

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