Electric car sales set to rise again - here's why

In Europe, a quarter of all cars sold in 2025 will be zero-emission, thanks to more economical models and stricter CO2 limits.

By: Francesco Barontini

Published by: Brian Potter

Sep 28, 2024 at 4:28am ET

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The electric car market may be at the dawn of a new era. Apparently, 2025 will see a resurgence in sales of zero-emission vehicles in Europe. The reasons are varied, but according to estimates, the year will end with a market share for BEVs (battery electric vehicles) of between 20% (BloombergNEF) and 24% (Transport & Enviroment).

Growth will therefore be substantial if we consider that the figures for the first half of 2024 indicate that electric cars are stuck at a low 13.3%, a figure that is even less encouraging if we compare it with the 13.8% recorded in the first six months of 2023. However, as we've mentioned, things are about to change. Let's take a look at why.

The arrival of new models

First of all, there is the arrival of a considerable number of electric cars priced at less than €25,000 (approx. £21,000). For the moment, we have the Dacia Spring, the Citroën e-C3, the future Leapmotor T03 and a few others. In a few months' time, attractive models such as the Renault 5 electric, the Fiat Grande Panda, the Hyundai Inster and others will be added. In short, the market is set to grow, and volumes will almost automatically increase.

Fiat Grande Panda (2024)

The electric Fiat Grande Panda will arrive by the end of the year

Fiat

Then there will be more and more low-cost Chinese electric competitors. They too will help to move the market and push traditional carmakers to offer zero-emission cars at prices below €25,000 and, in some cases, €20,000 (£17,000).

The effect of fines on excessive emissions

But there is another factor that will stimulate the growth of electric cars in Europe. According to Transport & Enviroment, in recent years manufacturers have focused on profits, maximising revenues from the sale of cars with conventional engines. This is one of the reasons why, from 2022 to 2024, electric cars have grown less rapidly than expected.

Volvo EX30

Thanks to the success of the EX30, Volvo has already achieved its 2025 targets.

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But with the arrival of new penalties and emissions limits reduced from 116 g/km of CO2 to 94 g/km of CO2, this commercial strategy can no longer be implemented. The fines imposed on petrol and diesel models that exceed the new values will be such as to wipe out the much sought-after additional benefit. The only solution is to push towards less polluting models - hybrids, of course, but also pure electrics. And how do we do that? With discounts, promotions and price reductions.

It is precisely electric cars that will play the main role in reducing emissions for the various brands. According to a study by T&E, CO2 emissions from cars sold next year will be 20% lower than they are today. BEVs will account for 60% of this reduction, while the remaining 40% will come from fully hybrid and plug-in hybrid cars, which will also see considerable growth.