IHS Automotive’s study predicts people will buy 21 million fully and semi-autonomous cars by 2035.
It’s a known fact major automakers are starting to set aside more and more R&D money for autonomous driving technologies. That’s why new estimates about annual sales of driverless cars show substantially more people will likely buy cars featuring a full or semi-autonomous driving system in the next decades.
According to the forecast released by IHS Automotive, global sales of autonomous vehicles will reach almost 600,000 units by 2025. That number doesn’t seem to be very impressive, but the big boost will come after that, with IHS estimating a massive 43-percent compound annual growth from 2025 until 2035. That means sales of autonomous cars are projected to reach as much as 21 million by the year 2035.
United States is expected to be at the forefront of the deployment of driverless cars, with several thousand cars by 2020 and almost 4.5M vehicles by 2035. China will also be a major contributing factor, with sales of cars equipped with some type of autonomy forecasted to hit 5.7M in 2035.
IHS Automotive believes people in Western European countries will buy more than 3M cars by 2035 while those living in Eastern Europe will acquire approximately 1.2M vehicles. The prognosis also includes Middle East and Africa where sales are expected to exceed 1M units by 2035. As for Japan and South Korea, combined sales in those two countries will reach almost 1.2M.
The technology is undoubtedly advancing at a fast pace, but it’s going to be tricky to elaborate suitable legislation and regulation for cars fitted with semi or fully autonomous driving systems. There’s also the matter of initial consumer acceptance along with other issues that will need to be addressed, including software reliability and cyber security. With time, these problems will be ironed out, but it’s going to take a while.
Source: IHS Automotive
Autonomous Vehicle Sales Set to Reach 21 Million Globally by 2035, IHS Says
SOUTHFIELD, Mich.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--The latest forecast from IHS Automotive calls for sales of nearly 21 million autonomous vehicles by 2035. This is a substantial increase from previous estimates, and is influenced by recent research and development by automotive OEMs, supplier and technology companies who are investing in this area. The new forecast is also based on a wave of recent developments and investments in this sector of the market, as well as activity within various regulatory environments.
The United States will lead the world in initial deployment and early adoption of autonomous vehicles, while Japan will simultaneously ramp up industry coordination and investment ahead of the Summer Olympics in Tokyo in 2020.
“Global sales of autonomous vehicles will reach nearly 600,000 units in 2025,” said Egil Juliussen, Ph.D. and director of research at IHS Automotive. “Our new forecast reflects a 43 percent compound annual growth rate between 2025 and 2035 – a decade of substantial growth, as driverless and self-driving cars alike are more widely adopted in all key global automotive markets,” he said.
The latest analysis from business information provider IHS Automotive, part of IHS Inc. (NYSE: IHS) takes into account key factors influencing this growth. New mobility solutions such as ride sharing and car sharing programs, increasing investment in autonomy by OEMs, suppliers and technology companies alike, research and development centers underway and improved efficiencies are expected to impact the further proliferation of automotive technologies. The IHS analysis also considers unique insight into various mobility trends forming around the world.
IHS forecasts incorporate a multitude of factors, including current market development of foundational technologies and considerable R&D announcements and collaboration projects under way. These include discussions and initiatives among OEMs and their suppliers, between OEMs and ridesharing companies, technology company initiatives and increased investment in autonomy and mobility by other entities as well.
”Future mobility will connect and combine many different modes and technologies, and autonomous vehicles will play a central role,” said Jeremy Carlson, principal analyst at IHS Automotive. “IHS expects entirely new vehicle segments to be created, in addition to traditional vehicles adding autonomous capabilities. Consumers gain new choices in personal mobility to complement mass transit, and these new choices will increasingly use battery electric and other efficient means of propulsion.”
United States first to deploy autonomy
The U.S. market is expected to see the earliest deployment of autonomous vehicles as it works through challenges posed by regulation, liability and consumer acceptance. Deployment in the U.S. will begin with several thousand autonomous vehicles in 2020, which will grow to nearly 4.5 million vehicles by 2035, according to IHS Automotive forecasts. As in many other markets, a variety of use cases and business models are expected to develop around consumer demand for personal mobility.
China leads in technology deployment volumes
Despite a later start, IHS Automotive forecasts more than 5.7 million vehicles sold in China in 2035 will be equipped with some level of autonomy, the single largest market for the technology, according to analysts. The sheer volume of vehicles expected to be sold there as well as consumer demand for new technologies will drive growth, with more upside possible as regulators assess the potential of autonomous mobility to address safety and environmental concerns.
Western European markets lead EMEA region
Major markets in Western Europe will maintain industry technology leadership through the premium segment, with a little more than 3 million autonomous vehicles expected to be sold in 2035 and another 1.2 million vehicles in Eastern Europe. IHS Automotive also forecasts more than 1 million vehicles with some level of autonomy in the Middle East and Africa in 2035, with the potential for new and innovative business models and use cases.
Japan and South Korea driven by demand for technology
In Japan and South Korea collectively, IHS Automotive forecasts indicate nearly 1.2 million vehicles will be enabled with some form of autonomous driving capability by 2035. Demographics and an affinity for technology and innovative solutions help both markets, as the Japanese auto industry unites to close the gap with U.S. and European rivals and as South Korea continues its development of world-class capabilities.
Regulatory environment, cybersecurity and software are key development influencers
The IHS Automotive analysis also indicates that continued challenges to autonomous vehicle deployment include potential technology risks for software reliability and cybersecurity, though both of these are showing improvements as technology evolves and the industry recognizes the threat. In addition, the implementation of local and federal guidelines and regulatory standards, as well as a legal framework for self-driving cars, continue to prove challenging. Various states and regions have taken appropriate measures to begin to develop these frameworks, while others are still crafting their approach.
“The future fleets of driverless vehicles will provide mobility services for anyone and anything, creating exciting and new opportunities for the automotive industry,” said Juliussen. “Increasing competition from the high-tech and other industries is accelerating the auto industry’s autonomous software and cybersecurity development efforts,” he said. Carlson added, “Those who don’t adjust to a changing world will unfortunately be left behind, or will at least face a very different industry.”