The life cycle of a car lasts seven to eight years on average. Breaking down that period of time, we observe four distinct phases: introduction, growth, maturity, and decline. The mid-cycle refresh, after about three or four years of sales, reaches the maturity stage. That helps the product stay fresh without major investments.
Many significant cars in Europe and the United States will be seven or eight years old in 2023. Most of these are very popular models, presented or unveiled between 2015 and 2016. Will we soon see new generations of these vehicles? Below are the answers, divided by manufacturers.
The next generation of the BMW 5 Series should be among the most important presentations of 2023. The current G30 series was unveiled in October 2016 and thus the brand could present the next verse by the end of next year. The same goes for the Mini sisters, Clubman and Countryman.
Even though Ford has announced that there won't be a next-generation Fiesta, the iconic small car will turn seven in November 2023. In the United States, meanwhile, the public is expected to see the new Lincoln Nautilus, which was first unveiled in January 2015 as the Lincoln MKX.
It is not yet clear whether Volvo will continue to market its flagship S90 sedan as we know it today. The big Swedish sedan was presented in December 2015 and could follow the same fate as the XC90 by transitioning to an all-electric generation. The same fate could also befall the station wagon version, the V90, which has been on the market since February 2016.
Speaking of GM, Cadillac is already late to replace the XT5, which turns eight next year in the United States. On the Chevrolet front, however, it is not yet clear whether a new Camaro generation will arrive. The Mustang fighter debuted its present form in 2015, and rumors have persisted for years that it could be canceled when the current generation run is over.
There's still no news about the future of the Chevrolet Equinox, the current generation of which has been on the market since September 2016 in the US. The brand, we recall, has recently presented the Equinox EV. Therefore the petrol version could survive for a few more years.
Furthermore, in Europe, the Hyundai i30 will be seven years old in September 2023. Being a key model, there should be a direct heir, which we could see in advance with some teasers.
Like the BMW 5 Series, its next-generation Mercedes E-Class rival is also one of the most anticipated introductions of 2023 (the current generation was presented in January 2016). The second generation of the Mercedes GLC Coupé should also arrive over the next year, following the introduction of the "classic" version last summer.
On the Japanese front there are three products destined to change, but whose future is not clear. First is the Infiniti Q60, followed by the Nissan Maxima, and finally the Nissan Micra, all currently in the decline stage of their life cycles. The Maxima has been confirmed as leaving the US market after 2023, but its global status is unclear. Rumors of the Nissan Titan's impending death after 2024 could also mean a grand exit for the full-size truck.
At Renault, it should be time for a new Scenic but it is not yet certain that the minivan will see a new generation as early as next year. Meanwhile, the Koleos, presented in April 2016, is expected to be replaced by a larger version of the recently introduced Austral.
The Stellantis Group, with 14 brands, could have a lot of work to do in 2023. The Alfa Romeo Giulia and the Stelvio will turn seven and eight respectively, like the Chrysler Pacifica, presented in January 2016 and whose facelift was introduced in February 2020.
More important is the case of the third generation of the Citroen C3, which has been on the market since June 2016 and whose new generation could be one of the French brand's immediate priorities.
As for Fiat, three of its models will be at least seven years old: the Mobi and the Toro in Brazil and the Tipo, revealed in May 2015. After last year's restyling, the Jeep Compass is not expected to receive a new generation anytime soon, despite the current generation being unveiled in September 2016.
More than a second generation, the Maserati Levante, which will turn seven in March, should receive a major restyling. Finally, Peugeot's priority should be new generations of the 3008 and 5008, presented in September 2016. But nothing is certain at the moment on that front at the moment.
Jaguar Land Rover
The Jaguar F-Pace will be eight in September and as a key product of the brand, we should see some hints of the new generation later in the year. However, this probably won't be the case for the Jaguar XF, which has been on the market since March 2015, and the Land Rover Discovery, the current generation of which was presented in September 2016.
Nobody expects a new generation of the Tesla Model X despite it being on the market since September 2015. The Model 3 is nearly as old, being revealed in March 2016 but there's no new generation in sight. Instead, minor improvements could be in store, as Tesla has done with the Model S which has been on sale since 2012.
The second generation of the Toyota C-HR is expected to hit the market in the first half of 2023, when the current generation will be seven years old. Other more global models, such as the Hilux pickup, will turn eight in May, so it could be time for the brand to present a new generation soon, especially after the recent renewal of the Ford Ranger and Volkswagen Amarok. The same should happen for the US-market Tacoma, which has been on sale since January 2015.
The Volkswagen Group currently has as many as 15 models that are reaching the decline stage of their commercial life.
Among the most notable are the Volkswagen Tiguan, which has been on sale since September 2015, the Audi A4, which has been on the market since June 2015, the Audi Q5, which was unveiled in September 2016, and the Porsche Panamera, the second generation of which was revealed to the public in June 2016.
The author of the article, Felipe Munoz, is an Automotive Industry Specialist at JATO Dynamics.