The annual report shows there could be significantly more crossover introductions in the next four years.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s annual Car Wars study forecasts General Motors to see gains in US market share because 88 percent of its lineup in 2020 could be new, Automotive News reports. If correct, the data puts the General's vehicle introductions above all other automakers and also greater than the predicted 81 percent industry average replacement rate. Ford is a close second to its Detroit rival at 86 percent fresh product in the next four years, Honda performs well at 85 percent, and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles is also above average at 84 percent.
The Car Wars report stresses the importance of automakers frequently replacing their vehicles. The authors believe that introducing new models pushes down the average age of products in showrooms. More customers then visit dealers to check out the fresh vehicles. The companies grow market share from these sales, which leads to larger profits.
This year’s study also predicts a massive increase in the number of new crossovers and light trucks in showrooms over the next four years. By 2020, 58 percent of the industry’s product launches could be from these popular segments, versus 42 percent from 2007-2016. GM could go even further with 86 percent of its US introductions being a CUV or truck from 2017-2020.
While the next four years look strong, Bank of America forecasts the US is nearly reaching peak auto sales. According to Automotive News, the analysts predict 20 million sales for 2018 and a slow drop to 14 million deliveries by 2026. The decline is partially anticipated because people in urban centers might switch to more ride sharing services rather than purchasing a personal vehicle.
Source: Automotive News