At Tesla's annual shareholder meeting in October 2021, Tesla Board Chair Robyn Denholm said, "by 2030, we are aiming to sell 20 million electric vehicles per year." The statement was not taken seriously by many in the media, especially when comparing that goal to reality: in 2021, Tesla delivered more than 930,000 vehicles around the world. That means in just nine years, the company will need to multiply its sales by a factor of 20.
There might not be a consensus among analysts about this ambitious goal, though much can happen in nine years. However, many of those analysts would strongly agree that a statement from Elon Musk about the Model Y being a global best-seller in 2023 is quite feasible.
More Than 1.6 Million Units By The End Of 2022
The latest sales data from the first quarter of 2022 confirms the strong growth that Tesla is experiencing around the world. Preliminary results published by the company show that it delivered a new quarterly record of 310,000 units, up by 68 percent compared to Q1 2021 and 250 percent compared to Q1 2020.
The volume increased by only 0.5 percent compared to Q4 2021, when Tesla delivered almost 309,000 units. However, the first quarter of every year since 2018 – the year the Model 3 came to market – has been soft for Tesla, with sales taking a dip. As such, based on the data from previous years, the EV automaker is expected to deliver between 1.6 and 1.8 million vehicles by the end of 2022. That would bring Tesla to the same level as Audi, which delivered 1.68 million cars in 2021.
The Model Y, The Protagonist In Q1 2022
There are many reasons to support optimism for Tesla. Among them include the Model Y, the latest offering from the brand which is posting strong results. This midsize crossover performed very well in model sales ranking in many countries during the first quarter of this year.
For instance, it was the top seller in Norway, the second-best-selling vehicle in Austria, and number five in both Denmark and Sweden. In larger markets, the Model Y posted very good results too. For example, it was the sixth most popular new car in the UK, and ranked 14th in the United States. Focusing on just the month of March, it led model rankings in Austria, Denmark, the UK, Luxembourg, and Norway, and was in the top 10 in Switzerland, Sweden, and Finland.
In China, the world's largest car market, the Model Y was 13th through January and February amid significant electric competition. Focusing on February alone, the Model Y was in China's top ten.
The Model Y started production at Tesla's Fremont, California plant in January 2020, with deliveries beginning on March 13 of that year. In only 24 months, it is already among the best-selling cars in many of the world's most important car markets. In the meantime, the Model 3 was among the top-selling cars in Canada, Switzerland, Germany, France, the UK, Norway, New Zealand, and the US during the first quarter of 2022.
These results, combined with rising fuel prices, government incentives for EVs, and increasing interest from buyers to go electric, Tesla has the perfect conditions to meet the goals of its executives. That is, at least the short-term ones.
The author of the article, Felipe Munoz, is an industry specialist at JATO Dynamics.